The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the
United Nations body for assessing the science related to
climate change.
The IPCC prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about the
state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on
climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for
reducing the rate at which climate change is taking place. It
also produces Special Reports on topics agreed to by its
member governments, as well as Methodology Reports that
provide guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas
inventories. The IPCC is working on the Sixth Assessment
Report which consists of three Working Group contributions and
a Synthesis Report. The Working Group I contribution was
finalized in August 2021, the Working Group II contribution in
February 2022 and the Working Group III contribution in April
2022.
We are in deep trouble. (sigh)
IPCC Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6) (2021-2023)
https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/
AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ <==
AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/
AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/resources/spm-headline-statements/
Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks
Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming,
climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and
human systems (high confidence).
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_NorthAmerica.pdf
AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/
IPCC: Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health
of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future
https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/
BERLIN, Feb 28 - Human-induced climate change is causing
dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting
the lives of billions of people around the world, despite
efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least
able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists in the
latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report, released today.
"This report is a dire warning about the consequences of
inaction," said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. "It shows
that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our
wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape
how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate
risks."
The world faces unavoidable multiple climate hazards over
the next two decades with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F).
Even temporarily exceeding this warming level will result in
additional severe impacts, some of which will be
irreversible. Risks for society will increase, including to
infrastructure and low-lying coastal settlements.
SOUNDING THE ALARM
There is no Plan B for dealing with the climate crisis
By Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, August 30, 2019
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/there-is-no-plan-b-for-dealing-with-climate-change-with-regard-to-the-climate-crisis-yes-its-time-to-panic.html
Let's get this on the table right away, without mincing
words. With regard to the climate crisis, yes, it's time to
panic. We are in deep trouble. To understand why, it is
necessary to understand something about carbon budgets.
Some of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human
activities such as fossil fuel burning is quickly taken up
by the upper ocean and land ecosystems. Some of the rest is
slowly absorbed into the deep ocean over the next
millennium. However, a lot remains in the atmosphere, and it
is only slowly removed by geological processes that take
hundreds of thousands of years. Consequently, carbon dioxide
accumulates in the atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the
fossil-fueled economy, and it will not drop much even after
we finally kick the carbon habit and cease our carbon
dioxide emissions.
If CO2 Emissions Keep Up, Earth Is Headed Back to The Triassic
Period -- Or Worse
https://www.sciencealert.com/if-co2-emissions-keep-up-earth-is-headed-back-to-the-triassic-period-or-worse
It's no secret that our planet is getting hotter due to
heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but a new
study suggests that current global warming trends could
produce a climate not seen in almost half a billion years of
Earth's history.
Worried about Earth's future? Well, the outlook is worse than
even scientists can grasp
https://phys.org/news/2021-01-earth-future-outlook-worse-scientists.html
Anyone with even a passing interest in the global
environment knows all is not well. But just how bad is the
situation? Our new paper shows the outlook for life on Earth
is more dire than is generally understood.
The research published today reviews more than 150 studies
to produce a stark summary of the state of the natural
world. We outline the likely future trends in biodiversity
decline, mass extinction, climate disruption and planetary
toxification. We clarify the gravity of the human
predicament and provide a timely snapshot of the crises that
must be addressed now.
The exorbitant cost of climate procrastination
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-exorbitant-climate-procrastination.html
A 3°C warming would wreak havoc on the planet, justifying
the absolute necessity of the +1.5°C limit. However, even
a +1.5°C change would incur heavy consequences. The
adaptation cost would undoubtedly be high both for current
and future generations: loss of agricultural yields,
sea-level rise, whole regions rendered uninhabitable,
leading to massive flows of climate migrants, collapse of
the ecosystems and impoverished biodiversity, extreme
meteorological events, seashore and topsoil erosion... All
these effects will grow even more dire as global warming
proceeds."
How climate change can make catastrophic weather systems
linger for longer
https://phys.org/news/2019-02-climate-catastrophic-weather-linger-longer.html
There does seem to be a plausible link between human-induced
warming, slowing of jet streams, blocking highs, and extreme
weather around the world. There is also a trend for the
slowing of the forward speed (as opposed to wind speed) of
tropical cyclones around the world. One recent study showed
the average forward speeds of tropical cyclones fell by 10%
worldwide between 1949 and 2016. Meanwhile, over the same
period, the forward speed of tropical cyclones dropped by
22% over land in the Australian region.
The Fall of The Amazon Could Trigger a Global Cascade of
Tipping Points
https://www.sciencealert.com/the-fall-of-the-amazon-could-trigger-a-global-cascade-of-tipping-points
If the Amazon crosses a critical threshold of
self-resilience, a new study suggests the disaster could set
off a domino effect, knocking over tipping points elsewhere
in the world, too, abruptly accelerating environmental
crises and causing irreparable damage to the planet.
Tipping points in the global climate system, such as
collapsing ice sheets, glacier melt, forest dieback, sea
level rise, and shifting monsoons, have received a lot more
attention in recent years.
Each one of these switches could seriously turn up the heat
on our planet, creating a 'hothouse Earth' with irreversible
and catastrophic effects.
They are all connected by the global greenhouse effect, but
in a climate crisis, it's uncertain in what order they will
ultimately fall.
ISU professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Bill Gutowski - Global Climate Change 101
https://isualumblog.wordpress.com/2015/08/20/global-climate-change-101/
ISU professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Eugene S. Takle (ISU) | Outreach Presentations
https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/index.html
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume I (2017)
https://science2017.globalchange.gov
Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), Volume II (2018)
https://nca2018.globalchange.gov
The National Climate Assessment (NCA) assesses the science
of climate change and variability and its impacts across the
United States, now and throughout this century.
Summary Findings
These Summary Findings represent a high-level synthesis of
the material in the underlying report. The findings
consolidate Key Messages and supporting evidence from 16
national-level topic chapters, 10 regional chapters, and 2
chapters that focus on societal response strategies
(mitigation and adaptation). Unless otherwise noted,
qualitative statements regarding future conditions in these
Summary Findings are broadly applicable across the range of
different levels of future climate change and associated
impacts considered in this report.
sam.wormley@gmail.com