Understanding Global Climate Change
Effects of Warming


Just Have A Think | The money men know the truth about 
planetary boundaries!  (16+ min)

Institute and Faculty of Actuaries | The Emperor's New Climate 
Scenarios - Limitations and  assumptions of commonly used 
climate-change scenarios in financial services

  Everyone who cares about the stability of our financial
  system should read this paper. Failing to include known
  non-linear effects in strategic thinking about climate
  change will lead to complacency, heightened risk and missed
  opportunities. So the scenarios that are used as part of
  TCFD processes really matter – both because economic damage
  will grow much faster and because the transition to clean
  technologies will happen much faster than conventional
  economic modelling suggests.

The Global Tipping Points Report Dec.06, 2023 https://global-tipping-points.org https://global-tipping-points.org/summary-report/key-messages/ https://global-tipping-points.org/summary-report/key-recommendations/ https://global-tipping-points.org/summary-report/narrative-summary/ IRREVERSIBLE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURE LOSS COULD SOON CAUSE 'TIPPING POINTS' IN THE NATURAL WORLD Environmental stresses could become so severe that large parts of the natural world are unable to maintain their current state, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible changes. These moments are called Earth system 'tipping points'. Five major tipping systems are already at risk of crossing tipping points at the present level of global warming: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, warm-water coral reefs, North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation, and permafrost regions.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change. The IPCC prepares comprehensive Assessment Reports about the state of scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for reducing the rate at which climate change is taking place. It also produces Special Reports on topics agreed to by its member governments, as well as Methodology Reports that provide guidelines for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC is working on the Sixth Assessment Report which consists of three Working Group contributions and a Synthesis Report. The Working Group I contribution was finalized in August 2021, the Working Group II contribution in February 2022 and the Working Group III contribution in April 2022. IPCC Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6) (2021-2023) https://www.ipcc.ch/reports/ AR6 Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/ <== AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/ AR6 Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/resources/spm-headline-statements/ Observed and Projected Impacts and Risks Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems (high confidence). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_NorthAmerica.pdf AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023 https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/ IPCC: Climate change: a threat to human wellbeing and health of the planet. Taking action now can secure our future https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/02/28/pr-wgii-ar6/ BERLIN, Feb 28 - Human-induced climate change is causing dangerous and widespread disruption in nature and affecting the lives of billions of people around the world, despite efforts to reduce the risks. People and ecosystems least able to cope are being hardest hit, said scientists in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released today. "This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction," said Hoesung Lee, Chair of the IPCC. "It shows that climate change is a grave and mounting threat to our wellbeing and a healthy planet. Our actions today will shape how people adapt and nature responds to increasing climate risks." Climate Central Graphics https://www.climatecentral.org/resources?type=Graphic&tab=graphics Scientists Discover Alarming Evidence Global Warning Is Accelerating https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-discover-alarming-evidence-global-warning-is-accelerating James Hansen: Groundhog Day. Another Gobsmackingly Bananas Month. What's Up? https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Groundhog.04January2024.pdf

Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) https://nca2023.globalchange.gov The Fifth National Climate Assessment is the US Government?s preeminent report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. It is a congressionally mandated interagency effort that provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the United States. The more the planet warms, the greater the impacts. Without rapid and deep reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, the risks of accelerating sea level rise, intensifying extreme weather, and other harmful climate impacts will continue to grow. Each additional increment of warming is expected to lead to more damage and greater economic losses compared to previous increments of warming, while the risk of catastrophic or unforeseen consequences also increases.

SOUNDING THE ALARM The Climate Change We've Already Created Will Last 50,000 Years, Scientists Warn : ScienceAlert https://www.sciencealert.com/the-climate-change-weve-already-created-will-last-50000-years-scientists-warn 'It won't go back to normal': What this year's heat waves mean for life in the coming years https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/08/18/it-wont-go-back-to-normal-what-this-years-heat-waves-mean-for-life-in-the-coming-years/ Whatever your views are about climate change and the source of this warming, it is happening, and it's happening fast. We need to get smart about the implications of living with extreme heat because we're going to be doing it whether we like it or not, for our own welfare and for our loved ones. Our Fragile Earth: How Close Are We to Climate Catastrophe? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/our-fragile-earth-how-close-are-we-to-climate-catastrophe/ Science tells us that if we act quickly, if we act dramatically, we can avoid warming that will bring far worse consequences. That's the fragility of this moment: we have a little bit of a safety margin, but it's not a large safety margin. The phrase I use often these days, a phrase that characterizes the message of this book, is the pairing of urgency and agency. Yes, it's bad, and we face far worse consequences if we don't act. We can see devastating climate consequences already. That's the urgency. But the paleoclimate record tells us we haven't triggered runaway warming yet. We can avoid that point of no return if we act quickly and dramatically. Ecological doom-loops: Why ecosystem collapses may occur much sooner than expected https://phys.org/news/2023-06-ecological-doom-loops-ecosystem-collapses-sooner.html What really worries us is that climate extremes could hit already stressed ecosystems, which in turn transfer new or heightened stresses to some other ecosystem, and so on. This means one collapsing ecosystem could have a knock-on effect on neighboring ecosystems through successive feedback loops: an "ecological doom-loop" scenario, with catastrophic consequences. There is no Plan B for dealing with the climate crisis By Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, August 30, 2019 https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/09/there-is-no-plan-b-for-dealing-with-climate-change-with-regard-to-the-climate-crisis-yes-its-time-to-panic.html Let's get this on the table right away, without mincing words. With regard to the climate crisis, yes, it's time to panic. We are in deep trouble. To understand why, it is necessary to understand something about carbon budgets. Some of the carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere by human activities such as fossil fuel burning is quickly taken up by the upper ocean and land ecosystems. Some of the rest is slowly absorbed into the deep ocean over the next millennium. However, a lot remains in the atmosphere, and it is only slowly removed by geological processes that take hundreds of thousands of years. Consequently, carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere throughout the lifetime of the fossil-fueled economy, and it will not drop much even after we finally kick the carbon habit and cease our carbon dioxide emissions. If CO2 Emissions Keep Up, Earth Is Headed Back to The Triassic Period -- Or Worse https://www.sciencealert.com/if-co2-emissions-keep-up-earth-is-headed-back-to-the-triassic-period-or-worse It's no secret that our planet is getting hotter due to heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but a new study suggests that current global warming trends could produce a climate not seen in almost half a billion years of Earth's history. Worried about Earth's future? Well, the outlook is worse than even scientists can grasp https://phys.org/news/2021-01-earth-future-outlook-worse-scientists.html Anyone with even a passing interest in the global environment knows all is not well. But just how bad is the situation? Our new paper shows the outlook for life on Earth is more dire than is generally understood. The research published today reviews more than 150 studies to produce a stark summary of the state of the natural world. We outline the likely future trends in biodiversity decline, mass extinction, climate disruption and planetary toxification. We clarify the gravity of the human predicament and provide a timely snapshot of the crises that must be addressed now. The exorbitant cost of climate procrastination https://phys.org/news/2019-02-exorbitant-climate-procrastination.html A 3°C warming would wreak havoc on the planet, justifying the absolute necessity of the +1.5°C limit. However, even a +1.5°C change would incur heavy consequences. The adaptation cost would undoubtedly be high both for current and future generations: loss of agricultural yields, sea-level rise, whole regions rendered uninhabitable, leading to massive flows of climate migrants, collapse of the ecosystems and impoverished biodiversity, extreme meteorological events, seashore and topsoil erosion... All these effects will grow even more dire as global warming proceeds." How climate change can make catastrophic weather systems linger for longer https://phys.org/news/2019-02-climate-catastrophic-weather-linger-longer.html There does seem to be a plausible link between human-induced warming, slowing of jet streams, blocking highs, and extreme weather around the world. There is also a trend for the slowing of the forward speed (as opposed to wind speed) of tropical cyclones around the world. One recent study showed the average forward speeds of tropical cyclones fell by 10% worldwide between 1949 and 2016. Meanwhile, over the same period, the forward speed of tropical cyclones dropped by 22% over land in the Australian region. The Fall of The Amazon Could Trigger a Global Cascade of Tipping Points https://www.sciencealert.com/the-fall-of-the-amazon-could-trigger-a-global-cascade-of-tipping-points If the Amazon crosses a critical threshold of self-resilience, a new study suggests the disaster could set off a domino effect, knocking over tipping points elsewhere in the world, too, abruptly accelerating environmental crises and causing irreparable damage to the planet. Tipping points in the global climate system, such as collapsing ice sheets, glacier melt, forest dieback, sea level rise, and shifting monsoons, have received a lot more attention in recent years. Each one of these switches could seriously turn up the heat on our planet, creating a 'hothouse Earth' with irreversible and catastrophic effects. They are all connected by the global greenhouse effect, but in a climate crisis, it's uncertain in what order they will ultimately fall.

ISU professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Bill Gutowski - Global Climate Change 101 https://isualumblog.wordpress.com/2015/08/20/global-climate-change-101/ ISU professor of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Eugene S. Takle (ISU) | Outreach Presentations https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/index.html sam.wormley@gmail.com